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Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts

Friday, 20 September 2013

SBP asked to do more to stem free fall of rupee

SBP asked to do more to stem free fall of rupee

Sept 20
The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) on Friday said the efforts of State Bank of Pakistan have stabilised the eroding currency to some extent but more should be done to stop its free fall.

Many among the business community think that monetary sovereignty has been surrendered to the IMF which has resulted in defeat of rupee at the hands of dollar on all fronts, said Muhammad Ali, Vice President FPCCI.

Speaking to the business community, he said that inter-bank as well as open market continues to see fall of the rupee which has lost around 7 per cent value since the current pro-business government has taken.  

Rupee may soon join club of other currencies which have seen double digit depreciation against the dollar, he said.

He said that inaction on the part of the government has resulted in a panic-like situation among masses putting additional pressure on the local currency.

Muhammad Ali said that the local currency has lost ability to resist the onslaught of dollar because the government has adopted a cool attitude towards the problem.

Government was deliberately devaluing the local currency without an announcement which indicates that there is something worth hiding from the general public.

India, Brazil and other countries have taken serious measures to save their currency while our economic managers have decided that local currency must shed points on daily basis, he observed.

The agreement with the IMF or paying back loan has failed to strengthen the rupee or the economy and it seems that the depreciation would not stop as long as IMF desires, said Muhammad Ali.  

Import of petroleum products alone are enough to create imbalances on external account, reduce the country’s import capability and hit the exchange rate for further devaluation of local rupee.

Devaluation will make imports costly reducing their demand while exports cheaper depriving manufacturers of incentive to cut costs and become more efficient which will increase production cost over time.

Why the government and the SBP have failed to foil the plans of speculative forces, he questioned.

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Business community fears economic contraction after IMF deal

Attaining growth within IMF limits biggest test for Govt: FPCCI
Govt may not be able to accomplish economic objectives: Zubair Ahmed Malik

Dated: Sept 11

The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) on Wednesday said using IMF loan responsibly and ensuring growth within the parameters of lender’s harsh conditions is to be one of the biggest test of the government’s ability.

IMF policies are widely blamed for chocking growth making life difficult for masses and the private sector while the PML-N is known for its pro-investment and pro-business policies, said Zubair Ahmed Malik, President FPCCI.

This obvious contradiction will make it very difficult for the government to ensure growth keeping lender happy and without compromising the falling living standards of masses, he added.

Speaking to the business community, Zubair Ahmed Malik said that majority of the population is already living below the poverty line reeling under rising inflation while businesses are finding it difficult to sustain.

“We see ahead an era of further depreciation in exchange rate, monetary contraction, massive unemployment, dwindling exports, reduced forex reserves, missed revenue targets, double digit inflation and rising cost of production,” he added.

He said that gas levy estimated at Rs105 billion, 30 to 50 per cent increase in power tariff and 30 per cent escalation in domestic power price from next month could result in increased energy theft and decelerated power sector recoveries.

Business community doubts accomplishment of the Government’s stated objectives like pushing growth rate to six per cent in five years, fiscal deficit at 4 per cent, tax to GDP ratio at 15 per cent, investment to GDP ratio at 20 per cent, and generation of 10,000MW of electricity.

Similarly, the FPCCI chief said, increase in food production and expenditure on education by 4 per cent each, pushing literacy rate to 80 per cent, 2 per cent hike in health sector spending, and creation of three million jobs seems difficult tasks. 

He noted that deadly combination of growing fiscal deficit and unsustainable trade deficit should be tacked to ensure sustainability.

Zubair Ahmed Malik said that solid and bold policy action is lacking which can tackle terrorism and sectarianism and improve socio-economic and political situation of the country which will help reform the economic fundamentals ensuring a bright future for generations to come.

Friday, 26 July 2013

Rising dollar and falling rupee exposes Govt, IMF deal

Rising dollar and falling rupee exposes Govt, IMF deal

July 26
The Pakistan Economy Watch (PEW) on Friday said rising dollar and falling rupee has exposed the secret deal between government and IMF to depreciate the local currency.

The sliding rupee has also exposed expertise of the economic managers of the incumbent government, it said.

The deal between government and the lender is also evident from the role of SBP which has been reluctant to take concrete steps to stabilise the exchange rate, said Dr Murtaza Mughal, President PEW.

He said that depreciation in the value of rupee will invite inflation as Pakistan heavily relies on imports. Moreover, it will add to the foreign debt and make life of masses miserable.

Overseas Pakistanis will prefer to send money through hundi as the difference in interbank and open market rate is at unprecedented level, he added.

Dr Murtaza Mughal said that there was no justification in the rapid erosion of rupee as overall economic situation was calm, indicators are as usual and there was not major change in the position of forex reserves.

A check on Dubai-bound flights can expose all the elements involved in flight of capital, hoarding of dollars and turning of black money into white, an evidence of blooming grey economy, he informed.

Exchange rates should not be taken lightly as it is among the most analysed and forecasted indicators in the world. The currency markets are the most liquid in the world with a daily turnover of close to $2 trillion as compare to $ 70 billion on the New York Stock Exchange.

Thursday, 18 July 2013

The other untapped ‘free’ money

The other untapped ‘free’ money

Published in The Nation on July 17, 2013

by Najma Sadeque

The actual worth of goods and services in the world last year was over $71 trillion, a staggering jump from over $41 trillion in 2000. If that’s the case, how is it that the amount of money in the world – coins, paper and digital – is ten times that or more? With such excess, why are 2 billion still hungry, poor, jobless or underemployed?

What happens when some have too much and most have too little money? When a minority of people have several hundred or thousand-fold more than others, they buy up most of everything, create monopolies and cartels, arbitrarily raise prices and make undue, excessive profits while the majority do with less than their fair share, or go without entirely. They have money enough to lobby and influence politics, government and legislation, and unwarranted control over or privatisation of ‘commons’ lands and public goods, leading to loss of social and economic services for the masses. Why is such excess purchasing power allowed when it causes heightened and unacceptable inequalities and damaging inflation?

If we really believe in things like human and constitutional rights, democracy, Islamic finance, and equal rights and opportunities, and acknowledge that all natural resources are essential for survival, and all are therefore entitled to an adequate share each, there then has to be a mechanism to ensure fair distribution of minimum needs for all citizens.

That facilitator is money, which today no longer has to be backed by gold or silver or other commodity; it just needs to be guaranteed and reliable.

Various types of positive financial services have successfully served the “little people” in many other countries for at least a century. When dire economic straits occurred, such as in Argentina, Iran, even USA and UK, and most recently in Greece, apart from rioting and protests, did people just curl up and die because they had no cash? No, necessity being the mother of invention, some innovated or revived old, tested solutions known as complementary or community currencies.

It is best illustrated by one of the most famous success stories. In 1932, Wörgl, a small Austrian town, was in dire straits. There were 1,500 jobless and 200 impoverished, penniless families. But Michael Unterguggenberger, Wörgl’s brilliant Mayor, decided to test out the ideas of Silvio Gesell, a German economist and activist. He issued scrip (free of cost except for printing) with an exchange value of 40,000 schillings, and spent the money into circulation through public works that created huge employment. All the broken roads were repaved, the water system rebuilt, a ski jump, new houses, and more made; even a bridge, commemorated with a permanent plaque that proudly states: “This bridge was built with our own ‘free’ money.”
As it turned out, every scrip generated 12 to 14 times more employment than the official schillings in circulation. It was so successful that a neighbouring city and six villages copied it. The then Prime Minister of France specially visited to see the “Miracle of Wörgl” for himself. A year later, 200 other Austrian towns planned to replicate it.

At this point, the Central Bank grew alarmed and asserted its monopoly over the finance system, even though each scrip was restricted to community use. The people sued the central bank, but lost. It was an unfortunate dog-in-the-manger attitude, refusing to assist people who needed help, but also thwarting the people from helping themselves.

Since then, there have been many other such examples – but with happier endings, some with government tolerance if not backing. A virtually costless solution for people denied the right to paid work and money.

Today, there are over 2,500 complementary and community currencies around the world. There are small service charges, but no crippling interest. There have always been poor and low-income or the temporarily cash-strapped; alternatives were developed according to local needs. The tokens are not national legal tender, and not allowed outside delineated areas of operation. Yet, they are being resorted to increasingly, to overcome the marginalisation of the masses by banks or inept governments.

In recent decades, answering a need, they have grown in popularity and use. Just a few weeks ago, the 2nd International Conference on Complementary and Community Currency Systems took place in the Netherlands, addressed by academics, economists, public bankers and activists. Other such meetings are forthcoming this year in UK and USA. Since 2002 – long before the global financial crash – some local currency schemes in Europe under certain conditions are exchangeable with national currency.

Some schemes are for the express purpose of local food production and re-localisation of purchasing. If and when they are no longer needed, they can be easily phased out. It is the sort of thing our women and our peasants need until they are “mainstreamed” into the wider economy.

In a country such as ours where there is inadequate infrastructure for most services, this would ideally be carried out by trusted civil service organisations as they have been elsewhere. Micro-credit philanthropies need to study complementary/community currency possibilities because the money they use still carries an in-built interest burden, while microcredit banks charge heavy interest like any other bank; they serve individuals rather than communities, and only to a limited extent.

Commercial banks are limited by their own for-profit-only existence, lending only to those who pay back with interest; and certain self-serving transactional practices that have corrupted part of the wider banking world, in the end failing most people, especially of the developing world.
The scheme requires no major infrastructure, and it certainly does not require foreign loans, that would be undesirable and defeat the purpose. There is one proviso though. It has to be operated with transparency and honesty. Success stories came from maintaining open, audited books and public participation. If corruption or political advantage intrude, it will collapse before take-off.

The question is: why didn’t Pakistan adopt such solutions earlier? Mainly because our politicians and decision-makers couldn’t care less; nor do they want to empower people, who may become the competition or reduce their domination – as in the case of land reform. The “highly-qualified” are so inward-looking, even brainwashed by World Bank/IMF norms, they don’t even look at today’s easily accessible global information, to learn from outside.
It first needs the realisation that money is merely a measure – a medium of exchange and accounting device – and that it does ‘not’ have to be borrowed or be earned first before it can be spent. Nor is it a special knowledge that only bankers and controlling governments can understand.

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

Proper usage of borrowed money real test of the government

Nothing wrong in getting IMF loan as last option
Decision of equitable loadshedding questioned


July 08
The Pakistan Economy Watch (PEW) on Monday said securing IMF loan was not a success unless the government ensures proper utilization of borrowed money to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

Real test of the government will be to best utilize the money and fulfill promises with the international lender to improve economy and boost credibility, it said.

Pakistan was left with no option but to accept IMF conditions or face a default as the former government left Rs. 14.3 trillion of domestic loans, Rs. 500 billion circular debt, external financing requirements of $ 11.5 billion and budget deficit at 9 per cent, said Dr Murtaza Mughal, President PEW.

Pakistan would have been a developed country if if half of the money borrowed in past was utilized properly, he said adding that asses were expecting a good decision on taxing agricultural income to balance the taxation regime which hasn't happened.

Moreover, he said, many former governments ignored economical ways to secure energy and preferred the costly western solutions which has resulted in an energy mix where country is using 75 per cent of costly fuels and only 25 per cent of cheap solutions.

Dr Murtaza Mughal said that this policy hiked the power generation cost to Rs. 14 per unit in which Rs. 5 is given as subsidy which is simply unsustainable for an economically challenged country like Pakistan.

He warned that energy theft has touched Rs. 250 billion mark which will register increase if the government continued to ignore the issue.

Decision of equitable load-shedding across country should be revisited. The areas with high theft ratio theft should face more load-shedding while the consumers of the regions with minimum theft should enjoy better power supply, he opined.

Such a decision will reward honest consumers and push people to point towards power thieves which will improve overall situation, said Dr. Mughal.

Monday, 1 July 2013

The real causes of hunger and poverty

Alliance of the unaffected
The real causes of hunger and poverty
By:Najma Sadeque
Article in Pakistan Today 26th June, 2013

A favourite quote delivered at NGO/donor conferences enjoins teaching a man to fish so that a self-employing skill that feeds the family serves him for life. The problem today is that there’s little fish left in the oceans by the North’s giant industrial fishing tankers, or the waters polluted by industrial and agro-chemical runoff have poisoned most marine life.

Similarly the best of farmers can grow nothing if they are dispossessed of land and water. That age-old ‘fish’ wisdom applied throughout history when plant and animal life free from nature abounded and community lands for collective food security existed – until colonialism and lethal modern weapons, arrived to exploit faster than nature could regenerate, followed by the World Bank/IMF and the WTO speeding up the process.

Yet, ending hunger and unemployment is the easiest achievement – provided governments allow it. But our so-called elected don’t permit the most basic natural law unless one is wealthy – the right to land to produce food and other necessities. The PPP’s ‘roti, kapra, makan’ promises didn’t work because none of these are possible without land. Furthermore, the female half of our population being marginalised is not a political or human rights issue. Our elected governments have never been class-democratic; they are even less women-democratic.

Consequently, most countries with the greatest natural wealth that should have been enriching are instead among the poverty-stricken, thanks to policies discriminating against the women and the poor – imposed by governments, foreign lenders and foreign investors alike, with an export-oriented economy joined at the hip to global speculators in commodified food.

But none of these were mentioned among causes of hunger and poverty at the recent Islamabad launch of an “Alliance against Hunger and Malnutrition” by the three UN Rome-based agencies the FAO, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Biodiversity International. Founded in 2003, they’ve arrived rather late since hunger here began to soar since the 2008 global financial crash.

The media from all over the country joined several hundred participants, mostly NGOs and development workers, but small food-growers – the backbone of our domestic economy and among the worst-affected – were conspicuously missing, as were the decision-makers.

It was highlighted that 1.3 billion tons of edible food was discarded every year, but not that most is exported to the west from South countries while their own hungry starve. Or that the world over-produces enough to feed two to four billion more than our current seven billion plus population.

This state of affairs was absurdly blamed on distribution, although sellers rarely exclude a reachable market – as long as people have the money to buy with. The root causes were not even acknowledged let alone discussed, until disappointed participants voiced their objections.

The solutions sought were more of band-aid rather than curative nature. It did not include what could bring some visible results within one growing season if the political will existed – to resume and redistribute idle public land, excess private land, and land unlawfully appropriated, towards restoring it to the tillers (promised in 1946 by the then PML), who historically constituted 70 to 80 percent of the population.

Yet organisers felt coy about trying to persuade governments directly – although food insecurity has been dramatically overcome in quite a few countries through traditional organic farming which is necessarily small-scale and employment-creating on a vast scale.

The international ‘Food Tank’, reiterates that food security is impossible without improving gender equity and women’s empowerment, starkly proven by the failure of the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) launched 12 years ago. Because gender equity and food security in the MDGs are not intertwined as they should be, neither being possible without the other.

Questionably too, the issue of women farmers, FAO’s gender policy, and the UN’s Action Plan on Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (SWAP) are all absent from the agenda in the forthcoming food security conference in Rome this month. The UN’s huge bureaucracies don’t seem to think alike, or don’t coordinate like so many South governments.

They didn’t even echo De Schutter, UN Special Rapporteur on Right to Food, who reports that discrimination against women remains pervasive because they result from laws that are themselves discriminatory. When, at the outset, they suffer unequal bargaining position and gendered division of labour within the household, their marginalisation and exclusion from decision-making is complete. Pakistan, we know, is a prime example.

A successful strategy, he notes, requires a “whole-of-government approach, coordinated across various ministries, including those responsible for health, education, employment, social affairs and agriculture” – something that has never entered our political or economic mindset.


As long as Pakistan’s governments believe women’s empowerment for national food security takes last priority, or has to wait until debt and electricity issues are resolved – rather than being an inextricably concurrent issue – the growing famine will become difficult to hide.

Friday, 28 June 2013

IWCCI asks Govt. to complete IMF package deal urgently

Govt lauded for showing true picture of economy
Move helped restore confidence of business community
Broadening tax base better option than printing money
IWCCI asks Govt to complete IMF package deal urgently

Islamabad: June 23
The Islamabad Women's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IWCCI) on Sunday lauded the government for showing true state of economy to the nation which has improved confidence of business community in their leadership.

The statement of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar that the government would have to look towards the IMF and other donors to start returning foreign debts calls for an urgent action, said Farida Rashid.

She said that former government damaged the economy, took 200 per cent loan of Pakistan’s quota and left Rs500 billion circular debt unsettled, now the country will face a default if it failed to return three billion dollars to IMF during 2013-2014.

She asked the government to finalise a deal with IMF for a loan of five billion dollar minimum on urgent basis so that Pakistan can avert a default.

The current situation is result of the inaction of the previous government which signed the loan agreement with the IMF in 2008 but failed to reform the tax system, state corporations, energy sector, eliminate subsidies and bring down fiscal deficit to 4 per cent as promised during negotiations.

The indecision of former unpopular rulers has brought country on the brink again which cannot make it on its own, she noted.

Farida Rashid said that new IML loan will restore the confidence of World Bank, ADB, and other donors to support Pakistan.

It will improve investment climate, result in continuity of policies, reduce flight of capital and relocation of industries and erosion of local currency to stabilise exchange rate.

Farida said that unlike former rulers, the incumbent government has decided to stop printing excessive currency and broaden the tax net which is a very positive development.

She said that government should think about the impression that it plans to burden masses through taxes while sparing wealthy.

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

The debts taken in our name

Why does Pakistan routinely consider IMF-style austerity which decision-makers and well-off don’t suffer? Because, as well known, those with ulterior motives don’t have to repay. Mostly the hapless taxpayers do. Every time another loan is taken, it never eases economic problems. In fact, money doesn’t even change hands. It’s just a ledger entry in Washington of what’s lent by the IMF and immediately ‘returned’ to pay the current year’s usury.

What we should say instead is: “Sorry guys, our people are suffering unbearably. We’ll pay you later when we can.” We’ve paid off the principal anyway, as have dozens of countries, some several times over. If ArgentinaEcuador, even Dubai, can default, why can’t we? A moratorium would be a much-needed, learning exercise.

Why is it, the more our governments borrow on our behalf, the more indebted we get? When leading financial experts including those who’ve worked within the World Bank-IMF system have denounced crippling terms as dubious and unnecessary, why can’t we extricate ourselves? Hundreds of reports documenting IMF methods and consequences over the past four decades are readily available: on structural adjustment hacking social spending – health, education, water, sanitation, literally snatching food from children’s mouths.

A question never asked of our governments or lenders – why are objectives and terms of loans taken in the name of the people, not debated with the people, and so secretive? Even the pro-market Economist of London called it an international loan shark – because the system is rigged to scuttle repayment. Like any money-lender, they just want to collect interest forever.

In 1988, economist Davison Budhoo revealed in his 22-page resignation letter – more of an expose of IMF ‘expertise’ – after his 11 years with it: “When we went on a mission, we did not even have the scope to innovate, to look at the country and make projections, that you thought were reasonable... there was already a briefing paper before we entered the country. We were told what we were expected to do, and give conditionality in terms of what the fiscal deficit was and how much it should be reduced; even before we entered the mission... we were expected to structure our findings in relation to the figures in the briefing paper, which were put there without any research, and were predetermined. So the conditionality was also predetermined... In this sense, every IMF mission is fraudulent even today...”

Usurious earnings also support ostentatious lifestyles. As Budhoo described: “...The salary/allowances package of a median missionary staffer would be in the region of five to ten times the budgeted salary of almost every Third World head of state, and some one thousand times the per capita income of that of two-thirds of mankind that he is paid so handsomely to crush down into further destitution.” It’s easier to be conscience-free yes-men than to resign over principles.

Christine Lagarde, the current head of IMF, draws $400,000 annually, excluding perks. Third World people lose their livelihoods, go hungry, just to shoulder the lifestyles of 9,000 World Bank and 2,500 IMF personnel. As economist Jeffrey Sachs once said: “the Fund’s usual prescription is budgetary belt tightening to countries that are much too poor to own belts”.

Usury was forbidden by all major religions until some invented ways around it. The Muslim governments ignore it for supposed “lack of choice”. If countries can’t pay up, public assets are often sold to do so. Nor do IMF ethics see privatization of natural resources or essential services as human rights violations.

Even investor Warren Buffet calls them “the financial weapons of mass destruction”. So why do we put up with parasitism – or ‘Odious Debt’ as it’s aptly known? Unfortunately, few who understood the system blow the whistle – they were too comfortable in their overpaid lifestyle.

Governments inheriting past debts, when occasionally trying to frame the right policies, find their hands tied because IMF takes first priority before spending for food, jobs, poverty alleviation, and maybe some development. Even 40 years ago, totalThird World debt was $135 billion; it quadrupled in 6 years. In another 12 years, debtors paid $1.6 trillion, and still left with almost as much in new interest-debt! Borrowing repeatedly to pay off interest ensures permanent debt-slavery.


Reduced to penury and fed up, the Latin American countries launched BANCOSUR (Bank of the South), their own development bank, sans dollars and outside interference. Initiated by Hugo Chavez in 2007 after Venezuela fully paid off the WB/IMF debt – thanks to nationalizing and retaking their oil – it will be fully operational this year. Is that possible here regionally? Will the new government focus on strictly enforcing transparency and accountability, without which corruption can’t be eliminated? Or are we doomed by our own leaders collaborating with post-independence colonizers?

By:Najma Sadeque
Putting up with parasitism